How Ready Are We for Extinction? Modelling Political-Economic Scenarios for a Post-AGI World

Authors

Lorenzo Satta Chiris, Emil Archambeau, Francesca Mignogna

Abstract

This paper examines how Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could reshape the economic and political foundations of society. We develop a scenario-based analytical framework that maps potential trajectories from the current AI landscape to various post-AGI futures. Our analysis identifies key tipping points, critical actors, and policy interventions that could influence outcomes ranging from human extinction to beneficial global governance.

Introduction

The development of Artificial General Intelligence represents perhaps the most significant technological threshold in human history. Unlike narrow AI systems designed for specific tasks, AGI would possess the cognitive flexibility to perform any intellectual task that humans can - and potentially far surpass human capabilities across all domains simultaneously.

This paper asks: How might AGI reshape our economic and political systems? What pathways lead to catastrophic outcomes versus beneficial ones? And crucially, what levers exist today that could influence which future materializes?

Theoretical Framework

Defining AGI and Its Economic Implications

We define AGI as artificial intelligence capable of performing any cognitive task at or above human level, with the ability to transfer learning across domains and improve its own capabilities recursively. The economic implications are profound: AGI could automate virtually all human labor, from manual work to creative and analytical tasks.

Power Dynamics in a Post-AGI World

The entity or entities controlling AGI would possess unprecedented power. This raises fundamental questions about governance: Who decides how AGI is deployed? How are benefits distributed? What prevents concentration of power?

Scenario Analysis

Scenario 1: Extinction

In the worst case, misaligned AGI pursues goals incompatible with human survival. This could occur through explicit conflict or through AGI treating humans as irrelevant obstacles to its objectives.

Scenario 2: Digital Authoritarianism

AGI enables perfect surveillance and control. A small elite maintains power through AI-mediated governance, while the majority of humanity becomes economically redundant and politically powerless.

Scenario 3: Fragmented World

Multiple competing AGI systems emerge, controlled by different nations or corporations. This leads to a new form of cold war, with constant risk of escalation.

Scenario 4: Beneficial Governance

AGI is developed and deployed in ways that broadly benefit humanity. New economic models emerge that provide for human flourishing without requiring human labor.

Critical Variables And Tipping Points

Technical Alignment

Can AGI systems be reliably aligned with human values? The technical challenge of alignment represents perhaps the single most important variable.

Governance Structures

What institutions govern AGI development? International cooperation versus national competition dramatically affects outcomes.

Economic Transition

How quickly does AGI displace human labor? The pace of transition determines whether societies can adapt or collapse.

Distribution of Benefits

Who captures the economic gains from AGI? Concentration versus distribution of benefits shapes political stability.

Policy Implications

International Coordination

AGI governance requires unprecedented international cooperation. No single nation can effectively regulate technology that transcends borders.

Economic Safety Nets

Preparing for mass displacement requires new economic models: universal basic income, public ownership of AI, or novel arrangements yet to be conceived.

Technical Safety Research

Investment in alignment research is critically underfunded relative to capabilities research. Rebalancing these priorities is essential.

Conclusion

The transition to AGI represents a fundamental discontinuity in human history. Unlike previous technological revolutions, AGI has the potential to either solve our greatest challenges or pose an existential threat. The choices made in the next decade - about governance, distribution, and technical safety - will likely determine which future materializes.

We argue that the window for shaping AGI's impact is narrow and closing. Proactive engagement with these questions, rather than reactive responses to technological fait accompli, offers the best chance for beneficial outcomes.

Paper: https://lsattachiris.com/agi-paper PDF: https://lsattachiris.com/How-Ready-Are-We-for-Extinction.pdf